In Our Opinion: Why democracy is key to containing climate change

In India, the Centre for Science and Environment’s research shows that the country faced extreme weather events in 255 of the first 274 days of the year. There were average heavy rains, floods or landslides in at least one part of the country this monsoon season. And in some other months, heat dominated, or the rains played truant. January 2024 was India’s ninth driest since 1901 and in February the country recorded its second-highest minimum temperature in 123 years. The monsoon months of July, August and September were also time for record-high temperatures, and October and November were the warmest in more than 120 years.

Rising toll

Most climate models predict more of the same for 2025 – punishing floods, searing temperatures, rising sea levels, forest fires. In other words, the challenge is not just to contain the temperature rise but also to prevent the loss of lives and livelihoods. Forecasters will have to combine with other experts to tell farmers when to sow and make their fields climate-resilient. The fact that weather vagaries caused a cumulative loss of Rs 110 crore to paddy farmers in Kerala alone could give some sense of the magnitude of the challenge.

A World Economic Forum study points out that a third of India’s GDP is generated in sectors highly dependent on nature – agriculture, forestry, fisheries, even construction. It estimates a worrying 16 per cent drop in farm productivity – a more than 2.5 per cent drop in GDP — because of weather vagaries by 2030.

An RBI report last year warned that economic losses could increase several times when the hit to other sectors is accounted for. It suggests that up to 4.5 per cent of India’s GDP could be at risk by 2030, owing to lost labour hours from extreme heat and humidity. It points out that health hazards could lead to a loss in productivity and cause migration from areas more prone to climate risks. In September, the then RBI governor Shaktikanta Das underlined the gravity of the challenge: Severe climate or weather-related events can impact the central bank’s core mandates of price and financial stability by causing sudden price pressures, damage to infrastructure and loss of economic activity.

Early warning

India’s forecasting system is amongst the best globally. However, the forecasters’ traditional remit is inadequate in such times. The country now needs early warning systems to generate information on flash floods and landslides — to avert a tragedy like that in Wayanad, for example. Climate experts have also linked the increasing number of dengue cases this year to weather vagaries. In other words, climate warning systems need to be tuned into health imperatives.

All this cannot be done without robust data and knowledge sharing. The current approach of storing information in silos is inimical to times, when what happens in forests impacts health and the conditions of seas and oceans impact agriculture like never before. The scale of this challenge is such that it will require coordination between a variety of agencies.

In fact, this task will require pooling in of efforts from outside the government – civil society, businesses, academia, citizen groups. It will require the authorities to be open to a diversity of views and to criticism – sledgehammer approaches will not work.

Till next time

Stay well
Kaushik Das Gupta